Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The mean count of everyday killings per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh official figures. But, public safety specialists have advised that murder figures might not signal better national security.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.