A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
